China Activity Monitor Services recovering but outlook still gloomy Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy outlook, new forecasts, property tax Ahead of the publication of our quarterly China Economics Outlook next week, we consider how Evergrande's woes, power cuts and supply shortages have shifted prospects for the economy. Our answer... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Pullback in easing expectations overdone The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained on hold for the 18th straight month today. And investors have recently pared back their expectations for monetary easing. But given growing economic strains... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Pulling the plug; power rationing in China Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance... 19th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) In q/q terms, official GDP growth slowed to a crawl last quarter. And our China Activity Proxy points to a sharp contraction. Although some of the recent weakness in services is now reversing... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property downturn deepens, triggering easing Supply-side disruptions mean there is an unusual amount of uncertainty about China’s recent economic performance. But one thing that’s clear is that the property sector downturn has gathered pace in... 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Producer price inflation reached a new high last month due to the surge in global coal prices. There are few signs that this is feeding through to higher output prices of consumer goods, however. The... 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth continued to slide in September and is now at its slowest pace since December 2005. We think credit growth will level off in the coming quarters, as PBOC policy turns more... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Downturn in China’s commodity imports intensifying China’s imports of key commodities slumped almost across the board in September. The main exception was imports of coal, which soared in response to recent power shortages. We expect coal imports to... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Sep.) September exports beat even our above-consensus expectations. Coupled with separate data showing that electricity consumption held up well last month, this suggests that the hit from power rationing... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally maybe running out of steam Commodity prices generally rose this week, helped by the US senate approving a deal to increase the federal debt ceiling. After a rollercoaster of a week, European natural gas prices ended the week... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power cuts and inflation, zero-COVID hobbling tourism The coming week may shine a light on the global impact of China’s power shortages. There are reports of them triggering sharp falls in shipping costs. The producer price data on Thursday will show... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
