China Economics Update The differences for China in Harris versus Trump A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and... 12th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Thoughts on the oil market sell-off The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus Will India kickstart the next commodity boom? With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 17 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We expect exports to remain robust in the near term, supported by the decline in China’s real... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update New US export controls will be harder to overcome The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it... 9th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic... 3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end? Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects. 2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Aug. 2024) The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tariff barriers keep climbing, USD still dominates trade Canada's new tariffs on Chinese exports won't have much of an impact on China's economy, but they are symptomatic of a broader wave of protectionist measures that have been ramping up in recent years... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs? While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
