Global Markets Update We think that China’s equities will continue to struggle Even though we doubt that China’s equities will fare anywhere near as badly over the next couple of years as they did in 2021, we do not expect them to make strong gains from here either. 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) Exports remained strong last month but may soften in the coming months amid growing disruptions at ports. Meanwhile, imports dropped back sharply, consistent with continued domestic weakness... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Peak homebuilding The amount of residential floor space being built in China hit a record last year. With new project starts dropping sharply recently, the government has now unveiled plans to ramp up construction of... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022 In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth picked up again in December amid increased policy support. We think lending will continue to rebound in the coming months although officials are likely to prevent a sharp jump. 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Chinese inflation dropped back last month, consistent with our view that the acceleration in price gains in earlier months would prove temporary. We think factory-gate inflation will continue to... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs show demand stabilising, not reigniting The December PMI data for China point to a healthy pick-up in commodity demand. But this only partially reverses the declines from earlier in 2021, and the big picture remains that commodity demand in... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices... 4th January 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think PBOC easing will push down CGB yields While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to... 22nd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs of an upturn in... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
