China Economics Update PBOC shows surprising restraint amid downturn The People’s Bank (PBOC) forwent the opportunity to lower its policy rates today. That’s somewhat surprising given the sharp economic downturn and recent calls from China’s leadership for monetary... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports pointing to weaker demand The latest trade data out of China suggest that recent restrictions imposed to contain the surge in new cases of COVID-19 are hitting commodity demand hard. And we think it will remain weak in the... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Mar.) Goods trade dropped back sharply last month. While disruptions from the latest COVID-19 outbreak are partly to blame, shifts on the demand-side played a bigger role. 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth was much stronger than expected last month amid increased policy support. With more easing on the horizon, we expect a further acceleration although a sharp pick-up in lending... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Factory gate inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. Consumer prices continued to rise as well. Although the price of some goods will stay high... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think China’s stock market is set to surge While we suspect the recent recovery in the MSCI China Index may have further to run, we don’t think the stage is set for a big rally either. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China demand will still be key in driving metal prices The war in Ukraine and high energy prices will keep industrial metal prices elevated for now. But once supply fears ease, the weakness in China’s demand will be exposed and will weigh on prices. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today fell under 50 last month as measures to contain the latest virus outbreak weighed heavily on industry and, taken together with the official survey... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The surveys add to growing evidence of a large blow to service sector activity amid the latest virus surge. The hit to industry looks to have been much more modest. But even so, the economy is in the... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron continues to take a toll Virus cases remain elevated and although authorities appear to be identifying and isolating a rising share of infections, new outbreaks are still popping up in parts of the country. The resulting... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
