China Data Response China Trade (Apr.) Goods trade softened further last month. Virus disruptions continued to take a toll but the main headwind to exports is weakening foreign demand. 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
China Activity Monitor Economy pushed backwards by Omicron Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that lockdowns in Jilin and Shenzhen triggered an outright contraction in the economy in March, even before restrictions were tightened in Shanghai and... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s restrictions add extra turbulence for global markets More inflation from supply chain pressures owing to lockdowns in China could make equity and bond markets more turbulent. 26th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s iron ore consumption peaked Iron ore prices have rocketed by close to 30% since the start of 2022 on supply fears. Yet, we expect cooler economic activity in China to weigh on iron ore demand, causing prices to fall by end-year. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Global aluminium output fell by 1.5% y/y in March with high power costs keeping a lid on production growth. Looking ahead, we expect regions where energy prices are more manageable to continue to... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC disappoints again Despite calling on banks to nudge down borrowing costs, the PBOC stopped short of requiring that they lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) benchmarks this month. For now, policymakers are mostly relying on... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter but it still slowed in q/q terms. In practice, the figures probably understate the slowdown. And growth looks set to be even weaker in Q2 given the... 18th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut alone will do little to boost credit growth The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). This will help nudge down bank lending rates. But in order to make much difference to credit growth it needs... 15th April 2022 · 4 mins read
