FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan) There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year of the Dragon: limited relief from economic woes The upcoming Year of the Dragon will bring some improvements to China’s economy, including an uptick in births, increased fiscal support and a further normalisation in consumer behavior. But with the... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. But this was largely due to the usual volatility in food and tourism prices around Chinese New Year. We think consumer price inflation will... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will the latest rally in China’s equities last? Policy support for Chinese equities may facilitate a near-term rebound, but investors probably need to be convinced that the government's attitude towards the private sector has shifted if there is to... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Some positives in China’s PMI data China PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. Note: Join our... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jan.) There were some gains in economic momentum at the start of 2024, at least judging by the modest rise in the PMIs. Admittedly, the survey readings are still depressed by historic standards, but this... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus only firing on one cylinder Large-scale liquidity injections have had little impact on economic activity recently and the upcoming RRR cut is likely to be no different. Quantitative monetary policy tools are ineffectual in an... 26th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s tech sector could continue to do well We think the “tech” sectors of China’s stock market are the best prospects to lead a continued rebound in it, even if we doubt they’ll fare as well as their global tech peers over the next couple of... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read