Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fed pivot offers limited relief, holiday spending falls flat Fed rate cuts will be welcomed by Chinese policymakers as they make it easier for property developers to service their dollar debt and reduce the need for PBOC intervention to defend the renminbi. But... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports hit another fresh high Our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes continued to rise in August to a new record high. Given that the EU tariffs have so far barely made a dent into China’s electric vehicle exports... 20th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Sep. 2024) The lack of any reduction to policy rates today, despite the clear economic case for doing so, underscores the extent to which the PBOC remains constrained by concerns about bank profitability and... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Five key themes in world trade In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is... 19th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from... 19th September 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024) Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help... 16th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Retirement age increase, import slowdown The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update The differences for China in Harris versus Trump A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and... 12th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Thoughts on the oil market sell-off The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
