China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) China’s export volumes fell last month by the most since March. Partly, this was due to the backlog of orders that built up during Shanghai’s lockdown having been cleared and ports returning to normal... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID threat, marriage slump The number of Chinese cities tackling virus outbreaks is now almost as high as it was at the peak of the Omicron wave. The hit to activity remains smaller. But with Chengdu entering lockdown and other... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected drop in Caixin manufacturing PMI was more significant than the slight rise in the official PMI, suggesting that downward pressure on industry intensified last month. There is... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC moving to defend key renminbi threshold The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the renminbi is little... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The official PMIs show a further loss in economic momentum this month as the reopening boost waned and the property downturn deepened. We continue to think the economy will struggle to make much... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus continues to underwhelm The recent flurry of policy announcements amounts to less than meets the eye. The rate cuts are too small to revive loan demand and the new commitments for direct credit support total just 0.8% of GDP... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chinese property slump not a huge headwind If the slump in China’s property sector continues for much longer, Australia’s export revenue would take a hit as iron ore prices tumble. But there are good reasons to think that the impact on... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery loses steam at the start of H2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic rebound following the hit from lockdowns had petered out in July. And despite increased policy support, growing headwinds will continue to... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC extends lifeline to struggling economy Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the faltering economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming months... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Energy crunch threatens to spread nationally Southwest China is currently experiencing power shortages due to a severe drought and heatwave. Officials in Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality have responded by ordering week-long halts to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
