China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate easing, ominous signs for exporters Officials are giving banks more room to lower mortgage rates by relaxing regulatory controls. We doubt this will be sufficient to put a floor under home sales. But alongside efforts to prop up the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The surveys suggest that China’s economy continued to lose momentum in September, with the global downturn weighing on exports and virus disruptions dealing a fresh blow to services activity. While... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water as virus disruptions return Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption and cooling exports caused the economy to stagnate in August. September was likely worse and there is little upside in the near-term. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell channels Volcker, yen intervention & sterling breaks Another eventful week in financial markets has seen the US dollar strengthen across the board as the FOMC’s 75bp hike and Chair Powell’s hawkish message hammered risk sentiment. The dollar is now near... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developers finish more homes, renminbi unanchored In trying to anchor the renminbi to the dollar, the PBOC has now put itself at risk of repeating the mistakes that led to a messy sell-off in 2015. Meanwhile, there are early signs that efforts to... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi may stabilise despite China’s faltering economy Although we think China’s economic outlook is bleak, we don’t expect further big falls in the renminbi against the greenback. 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Weak RMB inhibits easing, consumption takes a hit The PBOC has been trying to offer support to the economy this week without lowering its policy rates, but a desire to stabilise the exchange rate constrains what it can do. That’s a problem for the... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Party Congress puts a chill on the rest of the year Early indicators suggest that China’s economy was even weaker in August than it was in July, when the rebound from the Shanghai lockdown prematurely fizzled out. And constraints faced by policymakers... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) There was a further deceleration in credit growth last month, with a new wave of lockdowns adding to the problems in the housing market that have been hitting credit demand. Credit growth will... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Consumer price inflation fell in August and remains below the PBOC’s preferred ceiling of 3%, leaving room for the Bank to ease policy further. Meanwhile, producer price inflation declined to its... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A sizeable fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in August may be further evidence of the PBOC pushing back against the slide in the renminbi. If the currency were to breach 7 to the... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
