Long Run Update We expect mediocre long-run returns from Chinese equities Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more 1666857600 Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
China Economics Update Xi wants a more self-sufficient and socialist China General Secretary Xi’s Report to the Party Congress signalled a further shift away from market-based reforms in favour of a state-led campaign to increase self-sufficiency and economic security... 17th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly The reshuffle of Xi’s economic team The Party Congress begins on Sunday. There’s little doubt that it will mark the start of a third term in power for Xi Jinping. What’s less clear is whether retirement norms will still apply to other... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Consumer price inflation rose to a 29-month high in September and is now scraping up against the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. But this was due to a rise in food inflation that is likely to... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Zero-COVID is here to stay There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future and it probably won’t happen before the end of 2023. If the leadership did want to transition to living with the virus... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth surprised to the upside last month, edging up thanks to official efforts to boost lending via policy banks. But wider appetite for borrowing still appears depressed, which will probably... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus The 20th Party Congress The Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership but, with General Secretary Xi’s continued dominance in little doubt, it won’t result in any substantial change in policy... 11th October 2022 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US policy deals a blow to China’s equities, not for the last time China’s equities came under pressure today, partly in response to the US announcing fresh curbs on technology exports to the country last Friday. This is another crack in an increasingly fractured... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, in... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC’s proxies ready to fight It has been five years since the People’s Bank last dipped into its own foreign exchange reserves on a significant scale to support the currency. Since then, it is widely believed that the exchange... 3rd October 2022 · 13 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across the region were downbeat in September, as new export orders declined again. We expect conditions to remain subdued, as weaker global demand, high inflation and tighter... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
