China Economics Weekly What to make of the reopening rumours Rumours about an imminent move away from zero-COVID have lifted Chinese markets this week but there is no concrete evidence yet of a shift. And even if officials are now drawing up an exit strategy... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs diverge, but point to persistent weakness China’s official and Caixin October manufacturing PMIs diverged, but the crux of the matter is that both are painting a picture of weak industrial demand. With the services sector also struggling due... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose in October but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, it points to a slowdown in industrial activity last month. We think the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Oct.) The official PMIs point to a further loss of momentum this month as virus disruptions worsened and export orders remained under pressure. With the zero-COVID policy here to stay, we think the economy... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure push only a stopgap solution A jump in infrastructure investment can take much of the credit for the better-than-expected Q3 GDP figures. We think fiscal stimulus will result in a further ramp-up in spending next year. But China... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Knocked off course yet again Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What Xi’s clean sweep means for the economy Xi Jinping has removed the last vestiges of rival factions from the upper echelons of the Party, stacking the Politburo full of loyalists in a clean sweep not seen since the Mao era. With political... 24th October 2022 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q3), Trade & Activity (Sep.) Growth ticked up in Q3 as the hit from the Omicron wave reversed. But this leaves output only slightly higher than where it started the year. And momentum is now weakening again. 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Kicking away the ladder The Party Congress has slowed the leadership’s response to the semiconductor export controls introduced by the Biden administration two weeks ago. But the Ministry of Industry and Information... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
