China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October data point to a further loss of momentum, with retail sales dropping sharply amid worsening virus outbreaks. November is shaping up to be even worse. With exports cooling, the property... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Weak growth to weigh on Chinese agricultural imports We think the combination of subdued domestic activity and an economic downturn in most major economies will hurt demand for Chinese economic output in the coming months, prompting lower production and... 14th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market relatively appealing? The news that the authorities in China plan to “optimise” their response to the pandemic while not abandoning their zero-COVID policy has coincided with a surge in its stock market. There is still a... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lighter-touch version of zero-COVID is a gamble The easing of containment measures announced today is aimed at reducing the economic cost of the zero-COVID policy, not moving away from it. But it risks making it harder for local governments to keep... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s stock market recovery to last China’s equities have received a boost recently from speculation that the country will ease its strict zero-COVID policy, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more sustained rally; we forecast... 10th November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s zero-COVID policy and currency markets While the renminbi, and many other currencies sensitive to the outlook for China’s economy, have rallied sharply against the dollar on hopes that China will shift away from its “zero-COVID” policy... 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Early zero-COVID exit would hurt economy in 2023 A shift away from zero-COVID would be positive for China’s economy over the medium term. But the immediate disruption of reopening would probably exceed the cost of keeping the policy in place... 10th November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Much weaker than expected credit growth – and an extremely unusual outright fall in lending to households – again underlines the difficulties policymakers are facing stimulating growth while activity... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Consumer price inflation eased last month from September’s 29-month high and remained below the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. It is set to stay low by global standards over the coming quarters... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think optimism around China’s COVID policy is misplaced The recent rally in assets and currencies linked to the prospects of China’s economy on hopes that the authorities in China will relax their “zero-COVID” policy is unlikely to last. 7th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the coming recession compare to the past? The impending global recession will see sluggish growth or outright contractions in GDP in most major economies, with Europe faring the worst. Accounting for changes in trend growth over time, we... 7th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Oct.) China’s export volumes dropped back sharply in October, due to a deterioration in global economic conditions and a reversal in pandemic-related demand. We expect exports to weaken further over the... 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
