China Economics Update How will the authorities respond? The authorities will not allow a protest movement to occupy China’s streets for any length of time. If the protests continue, a crackdown is very likely. They have no good options in the near-term to... 28th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update China concerns raise downside risks to our forecasts With China now battling its most widespread COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, the country and its economy face a dire few weeks. As a result, China’s demand for oil will come under... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news already seems discounted in China Chinese equities have held up remarkably well in the past few weeks, despite a serious COVID outbreak that raises the risk of a lot of disruption to the economy. That might reflect how a lot of bad... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
China Economics Update RRR cut intended to provide lockdown support The reduction in the required reserve ratio that the PBOC just announced will help banks follow through on a directive to defer loan repayments from firms struggling with widening lockdown... 25th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Threat of widespread lockdowns high and rising The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system. Efforts to contain the current outbreak will, at the very least... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Preparing for reopening will take time Officials have made clear that they are sticking with the zero-COVID policy for now. There are some signs that they are becoming more serious about removing the main roadblocks to reopening –... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: US-China relations, regional elections and more 1669276800 November's briefing on Asia’s big macro and market stories included discussion of US-China relations in the wake of the Xi-Biden meeting as well as the economic impact of Beijing’s looser zero-COVI
China Economics Update More policy action needed to revive property sector Recent policy announcements have raised hopes that the property downturn may be coming to an end. But while the measures made public so far reduce some of the downside risks by giving developers and... 17th November 2022 · 4 mins read
