China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in November by the most since the start of the pandemic and imports dropped at the fastest pace in 30 months. We expect outbound shipments to fall further over... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few reasons for caution on the China rally While investors in Chinese equities have had some more reasons to cheer of late, we doubt that they will reverse much more than a small fraction of their earlier underperformance relative to US stocks... 5th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Zero-COVID’s end might not be panacea for China’s markets Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, they suggest that downward pressure on industrial activity intensified... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained turnaround in China’s markets probably still some way off We continue to think that recent optimism around the prospects for China’s economy and financial markets will founder. 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs add further evidence of another large blow to services activity as virus disruptions intensified this month. The hit to industry looks to have been more modest. But downside risks... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
