China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Already past the worst? New COVID infections across much of China may already be dropping back just as quickly as they surged only a month ago. Shops and streets are getting busier. A full return to normality is probably... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Post-Christmas catch-up: The global state of play Developments of the past two weeks reinforce the message that the world economy is headed for recession and disinflation in 2023. With the full effects of policy tightening yet to be felt, and re... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to remain weak in Q1 The December survey data out of China were uniformly downbeat. The plunge in the official services PMI points to a fall in oil demand, but we suspect that the hit to industrial activity (and metals... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the reopening wave delivered another blow to the economy in December. Services activity looks to have slumped. Industry was not spared, although the hit appears more... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes will remain on China It was a fairly quiet week in commodity markets. The only notable move was a slump in natural gas prices. The EU eventually agreed its long-discussed natural gas price cap early in the week, but it... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly The most dangerous weeks of the pandemic in China China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic. The authorities are making almost no efforts now to slow the spread of infections and, with the migration ahead of Lunar New Year getting... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector is still reeling Our China Activity Proxy reveals the extent of the economic damage being done by the zero-COVID policy in its final weeks. Hopes that its ending would lead to a rapid recovery have been dashed though... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
