China Economics Update China starts to tighten China today hiked the required reserve ratio (RRR) of commercial banks by 50bp. Interest rate hikes will follow but they will be limited by concerns over the durability of the economic recovery. 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Construction leading the charge The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy is settling back to a more sustainable pace of growth in all areas except real estate investment, where an unprecedented... 21st December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the view on the ground in China? China’s banks are nervous about the future, its consumers still want to save, but Chinese businesses are basking in healthy sales and profits and, despite government worries, are not particularly... 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Steady as she goes – November data still strong China’s latest data contain eye-catching turnarounds in inflation and activity growth. But the underlying story is of steady recovery and low price pressures, with an early signal investment will slow... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China’s carbon pledges hold back its economic growth? China’s recent pledge to limit growth of carbon emissions is achievable without a major policy shift. Pressure is likely to rise on China to do more, but the high level of emissions relative to... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China confirms policy continuity for 2010 (Dec 09) The annual Economic Work Conference broke up today with the expected commitment from China’s leaders to keep supportive monetary and fiscal policy in place while managing inflation expectations... 7th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong would consumption be without subsidies? China’s household consumption growth would have been much lower this year without subsidies, trade-ins and other government policy support. Investors should not take the current strength of household... 4th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Service sector activity picking up Construction slowed well before the rest of China’s economy in 2008 and it has since led the recovery. But our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that recovery is now entrenched across all sectors of... 23rd November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive? The evidence linking sharp asset price moves in Hong Kong to its tight dollar peg is weaker than many think. With the peg in place, asset price bubbles are a threat for the future. But a shift to an... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s commodity imports slow Despite further evidence of economic strength, China’s monthly data for October suggested that commodity stockpiling is waning. Lending growth declined more than expected, but credit policy is set to... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
