China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2010 China’s businesses and banks remain confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and reluctant to spend. 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Seven misconceptions about China We find it increasingly hard to recognise the inflation-ridden, bubble-filled China that we read about in the newspapers. Popular consensus seems to be settling on the view that China is overheating... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How will China tighten? We expect China to raise interest rates and announce a series of required reserve ratio (RRR) hikes over the next few months, but this should not be interpreted as aggressive tightening. Indeed, the... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where next for the renminbi? Recent comments from People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan make it likely that the renminbi’s dollar peg will remain in place a while longer. When it is loosened, the pace of gains will be slow. 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China serious about rebalancing? The Prime Minister’s address to the National People’s Congress today highlighted near-term policy continuity but offered little sign the government is getting to grips with China’s structural... 5th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Government still central to the recovery (Mar 10) Chinese consumers played a major role in supporting economic growth over the past year. Even at the depths of the global crisis, consumer spending barely slowed. But this was not entirely because of... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Consumer price inflation probably climbed to more than 2% last month and is likely to continue drifting higher. But a closer look shows few signs of major price pressures. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth set to surprise on upside Hong Kong’s economy will significantly outpace most people’s expectations this year, but inflation is likely to remain very low. 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about minimum wage increases? Proposed increases to China’s minimum wages are relatively small and they tell us very little about the outlook for inflation. 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for Chinese consumption (Feb 10) The economic data have on the whole been very encouraging over recent weeks, but this strength has only fuelled market concerns about inflation and the prospect of monetary tightening. These worries... 5th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How sustainable is China’s recovery? New GDP estimates from the People’s Bank support the message from the latest PMIs that growth in China is stable and strong. However, we believe that growth has already slowed and that continued rapid... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Is China’s growth already fading? The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to surprising weakness in December. The reality is probably less worrying, but momentum is slipping. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China overheating? Growth is strong and inflation rising but China is not overheating. Nonetheless, interest rates are so low that a small hike would have little impact on the real economy. The People’s Bank could... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong data strengthen case for early rate hike China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tightening to proceed very gradually (Jan 10) Last week’s increase in the required reserve ratio for commercial banks was a strong signal that the ultra-loose monetary policy of 2009 is being reversed. Increases to administered interest rates are... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot money inflows accelerate Hot inflows into China remain at a manageable level for now, but they doubled in Q4 relative to Q3 and are likely to be an increasing threat to monetary stability in the year ahead. 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
