China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No sign of overheating in activity data Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy expanded more last quarter in y/y terms than the official GDP figures showed. But q/q growth is a better guide to the strength of the... 23rd April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s property crackdown? China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cooling, not overheating At first glance, today’s GDP data might suggest China is overheating. However, the acceleration in y/y growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in q/q terms... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts on the Qinghai earthquake The death toll from today’s earthquake in Western China is likely to rise as more details come in. The affected region is among China’s poorest and, perversely, rescue and recovery efforts could end... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years might win it some respite from pressure to do more over its exchange rate, particularly if followed, as we expect, by a resumption of renminbi... 10th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q1) Chinese firms are increasingly confident. In particular, large state-owned firms have rapidly recovered their optimism. But smaller businesses remain more subdued, which probably means that employment... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi set to rise again against dollar, but slowly (Apr 10) The US Treasury’s decision to delay release of the semi-annual currency report in which it names “currency manipulators” among major trading partners has had a negligible impact on market expectations... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Mar.) Both of China’s purchasing managers indices are back at a level consistent with rapid output growth, while the price components give no cause for concern about inflation. 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi band would be largely symbolic Chinese policymakers are reportedly close to agreement on the next step in exchange rate reform: a widening of the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. This would be a sensible move, but its... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Most of the upward pressure on inflation in recent months has come from food prices. These are now stabilising and there are few signs of broader inflation pressures waiting in the wings. 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for a well-timed trade deficit The timing of China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years, if confirmed by March’s data, is almost too good to be true. 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity slowdown argues against rapid tightening The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that activity remains strong in y/y terms. However, in the q/q terms that matter more, the pace of growth has almost halved. 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A pivotal moment for relations with the US? The US Treasury’s upcoming announcement on whether China is a “currency manipulator” might not be the pivotal moment some are expecting. That doesn’t mean that a quarrel over the exchange rate can be... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
