China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Inflation probably rose to 3% in May, but the bigger picture is that the threat of overheating already appears to be dissipating. We now expect inflation for the year as a whole to come in below the... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much should we care about Chinese equities? We expect a big rebound in Chinese equity prices in the second half of 2010 as fears about policy tightening wane and the economy heads to a soft landing. However, rising prices will not give much of... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (May) China’s two purchasing manager indices are – for once – telling a similar story of slowing growth and easing price pressures. However, growth still appears fairly strong. The key message is that... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gliding to a soft landing A few weeks ago, the common view was that China was overheating and so heading for a crash. (We strongly disagreed.) The mood now seems to be shifting, partly due to worries about the global outlook... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China finally rebalancing? How much progress has there been in efforts to rebalance China’s economy? US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is positive, saying that “it looks as if there has been a durable shift towards domestic... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Overheating concerns still misplaced The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has slowed to near China’s sustainable rate. Headline GDP growth will drop to a similar pace over the quarters ahead, without any... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will Europe’s troubles affect China’s currency policy? Worries about Europe have prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the renminbi’s future pace of gains, but we still expect appreciation against the dollar to resume at some point between next... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the first quarter. As long as the global recovery continues, Hong Kong should beat most expectations over the rest of the year. 14th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No sign inflation is picking up Inflation pressures remain low in China. There are signs in the April data that the boost that stimulus policies have provided to consumer spending is easing. But for now, the recovery still looks... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People's Bank signalling a policy shift? Contrary to some suggestions doing the rounds in the media and the markets, China’s central bank has not shifted its position on exchange rate policy in its latest quarterly report. 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response External Trade (Apr.) China’s trade surplus reappeared in April and looks set to rise over the rest of the year. Against this backdrop, worries about the fallout from the Greek debt crisis are unlikely to delay a return to... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Tomorrow’s inflation data are likely to show a rebound in the headline rate in April. But a close look at recent trends suggests that inflationary pressures remain weak. With the economy set to slow... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property crackdown shakes markets (May 10) After a poor start to 2010, equity markets in China have weakened further with the launch in earnest of a government campaign against property speculation. The government’s decision to focus on... 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) China’s two PMIs are again giving conflicting messages on the state of the economy. About the only thing they agree on is that input prices have accelerated. But as long as manufacturers are not... 4th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rates likely to remain on hold until Q4 Events in China and Europe this month have reduced the chances that China will raise interest rates in May, as we had expected. A first hike may now wait until the fourth quarter. 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
