China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Widespread flooding may have pushed food prices higher last month, but sharp falls in inflation are not too far away. 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Construction slowdown gathers pace (Aug 10) The first of China’s data releases for July, the manufacturing PMIs, were downbeat. The economic slowdown is being led by heavy industry, which is bearing the brunt of uncertainty over the outlook for... 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Return of the peg In a series of statements at the end of July, the People’s Bank (PBC) laid out a comprehensive position on the role of the renminbi in China’s broader policy framework. The five articles from Vice... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) The latest PMIs provide further evidence that China’s economy is slowing, increasing the likelihood that policy will be loosened during the next few months. 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How significant is the non-performing loan threat? Rising non-performing loan levels are very unlikely to trigger a banking crisis in China, but measures taken to clean up bad debt may hold back economic growth and the pace of rebalancing. 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Heavy industry leading slowdown The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that commodity-intensive heavy industry is slowing, but other sectors are helping to cushion the downturn. 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s short-lived trade surplus with China Japan’s trade surplus with China in the first quarter is not enough to justify talk of a fundamental shift in the balance of trade between the two countries. A closer look at the recent data suggests... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downside risks to growth intensify China’s Q2 GDP growth was in line with our expectation, but unexpected weakness in the June activity data suggests the government may be forced to loosen policy sooner than originally thought. 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi appreciation stalls The renminbi has virtually stopped moving against the dollar over the last fortnight and is actually weaker in trade-weighted terms than it was when currency reforms were restarted just under a month... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Slowdown exposing reliance on stimulus (Jul 10) Investors are increasingly focused on signs that China’s economy is slowing. In fact, q/q GDP growth probably peaked as long as a year ago when the full force of government stimulus was being felt... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown in reserve accumulation unlikely to last China’s foreign exchange purchases slumped in Q2, but will probably pick up again as the trade surplus rises in the second half of the year. 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q2) Confidence has collapsed in real estate, but firms in other sectors remain upbeat about current conditions and the outlook. 9th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Inflation might have risen again last month but the peak is probably not far away. 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The significance of China’s latest investment plans Plans for new investment in Western China probably do not constitute a new stimulus, but should temper concerns that tighter rules on local government project financing will lead to a slump in... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown set to continue, market concerns to linger Current concerns about China’s slowdown are more justified than the previous fears of overheating. The government will probably loosen policy towards the end of the year, helping to maintain growth at... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
