China Economics Update Where are interest rates heading? What should we make of speculation that interest rates could soon be hiked? Rates have been rising in much of emerging Asia for a while and we believe that rate increases would be a good idea for... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit PMI (Sep.) There was further evidence in today’s PMI that China’s economy has bottomed out and is now regaining momentum. Meanwhile, price pressures are still subdued. 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would dollar weakness force China to revalue? Chinese policymakers probably would respond to any substantial fall in the dollar by allowing more rapid renminbi appreciation. But hopes that a dollar collapse could force China into the sort of... 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Real estate supporting summer rebound The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has picked up after bottoming out over the summer, with support coming from a surprising source. 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q3 2010 China’s businesses and banks are increasingly confident about the economic situation, but consumers are downbeat, preferring by a wide margin to save rather than spend. 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Heat rising again over renminbi (Sep 10) A spurt of renminbi appreciation in the last few days may not be enough to dampen growing anger in Washington at how slowly the Chinese currency has moved since the de facto peg was loosened in June... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mounting US pressure behind renminbi movement The renminbi’s latest gains appear to be a response to rising US criticism that the pace of movement in the exchange rate since June has been too slow. This reactive approach could backfire as... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response International Trade, Property Market (Aug.) There were further encouraging signs in today’s import data that domestic demand is firming up after a shaky few months. The trade surplus is still gaping wide though. Tensions over the renminbi are... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation continues to rise on the back of rapid food price increases, which should prove short-lived. Underlying price pressures remain weak. 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The RMB as an international currency: don't believe the hype The government has announced a series of moves over the last month designed to push the renminbi along the road to becoming an international currency. But major obstacles stand in the way, not least... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Aug.) China’s latest PMIs provide tentative evidence, which tallies with what our own China Activity Proxy is telling us, that the economic slowdown is bottoming out, albeit with the pace of growth... 1st September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Momentum still fading The Conference Board’s leading index is picking up again, but other forward-looking indicators suggest that China’s economy is continuing to slow. We still think that the authorities will have to... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) After another decent performance in Q2, Hong Kong’s economy seems to be on track for steady growth in the months ahead. The property market is looking frothy, but the government is already acting to... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further signs of weakness in July data The economy appears to be slowing more rapidly than anticipated a couple of months ago, according to data released today. China’s government has plenty of room to loosen policy to avoid a hard landing... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response External Trade (Jul.) China’s July trade data suggest that global demand is still strong while the domestic economy is flagging. With the trade surplus not far off a record high, China's critics overseas are unlikely to... 10th August 2010 · 1 min read
