China Economics Update Are policymakers being complacent about inflation? Consumer price inflation increased by much more than expected in November. But recent policy moves and official statements, including that from this weekend’s high-level policy meeting, give the... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong credit growth stokes expectations of tightening Today’s data showing continued rapid lending and very strong import growth will do nothing to calm market concerns that monetary policy in China is falling behind the curve. A rate hike seems imminent... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation probably rose further in November, but the upward momentum appears to be fading. Weekly data show that vegetable prices have fallen in each of the last four weeks. Unless... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A look ahead to 2011 The main events for December are the high-level meeting at the end of this week to discuss economic policy for the coming year, and the release of November’s inflation data in a week’s time. 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy normalisation already well advanced Monetary conditions are not particularly loose in China and markets may be overestimating the degree of tightening to come. We expect several increases to the required reserve ratio over the next 12... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) China’s latest PMIs provide more evidence that the economic rebound remains very strong. Output price inflation has picked up, but the strength of the economy means that policymakers can tighten... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Limited help for commodities from China The Chinese economy appears to be heading for a soft landing, but any support for global commodity prices is likely to be short-lived. 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Rebound continues The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a continued, broad-based rebound in the economy that provides space for policymakers to tighten without significantly undermining growth. 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Inflation returns to top of policy agenda (Nov 10) Inflation has risen faster than anticipated over the last few months and is now the primary concern of both policymakers and markets. A tight credit quota seems likely for 2011 – perhaps RMB6.5trn... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would price controls work? Price controls may appeal to officials eager to be seen to be doing something about rising inflation, but China’s experience with controls has not been encouraging. For markets, they could play either... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s economy outperformed expectations last quarter thanks to strong spending by residents on the back of a strong labour market recovery and a surge in spending by tourists. The overheated... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much longer will Hong Kong hold on to its dollar peg? The viability of Hong Kong’s dollar peg is again in question although the evidence linking recent asset price movements to the peg is weaker than many think. In any case, none of the alternatives to... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tightening on the way Consumer price inflation rose more than expected last month, but it continues to be solely a food price problem. Of more concern is that loan growth has not slowed, despite strong signals from the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade, Property (Oct.) China’s trade surplus has continued to widen, despite a recent run of strength in imports. The stage is set for a tense G20 summit. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) We think that consumer price inflation peaked in October. With all the recent increase in the headline rate coming from food prices, inflation is only likely to continue rising if there are further... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
