Global Inflation Watch What goes up must come down Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the lower growth target? The inclusion of a lower growth target in the new Five-Year Plan is a simple acknowledgement that growth will slow as China’s pool of surplus rural workers dries up. The call for better quality growth... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) China’s two PMIs fell further last month and are now consistent with a pace of growth slower than the average of the last few years. Firms report that input prices are rising fast but the prices they... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property bubble growing Hong Kong’s economy is growing at a healthy pace but residential property looks increasingly overvalued and today’s budget underlines that the government has few effective means to help. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Revamped data show property prices still rising slowly Much of the initial reaction to China’s new property price statistics has focused on the fact that property prices are “still rising”. But the median increase in new residential prices among the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls well short of expectations Consumer price inflation last month was well below expectations. Bank lending soared, as usual at this time of year, but the People’s Bank does seem to have had some success in slowing the pace of... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jan.) The doubling of import and export growth between December and January seems to reflect not just the usual volatility around Chinese New Year but also confidence among manufacturers about the prospects... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update January loan surge tests new credit policy January’s consumer price inflation figures will be the most closely-watched of China’s upcoming batch of data. But the lending data will also be worth a look for what they tell us about the government... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The sharp increase in food prices ahead of Chinese New Year is no surprise, but evidence of rising non-food price inflation is a greater cause for concern. Still, if we are right that economic growth... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank aims to curb speculation by savers Today’s interest rate announcement again showed the People’s Bank applying the biggest rate increases to long-term deposits, in an attempt to encourage savers to keep their money in banks rather than... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US-China trade tensions remain a threat The US Treasury has again chosen not to label China a currency manipulator. With US economic prospects looking brighter, the immediate risk of a flare up in tensions over China’s trade and currency... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jan.) China’s two PMIs give some conflicting messages for January, but the overall impression is that activity is no longer accelerating and that inflation pressures, while still high, have declined. 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Early signs of activity slowdown The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that activity slowed in the final weeks of 2010. This is further evidence that the economy is not overheating. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Banks squeezed by reserve ratio hikes Interbank rates have spiked to multi-year highs ahead of Chinese New Year. This partly reflects seasonal factors, but also that successive required reserve ratio (RRR) hikes are squeezing banks’... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
