China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Food prices probably drove headline inflation back above 5% in March, but non-food inflation still seems subdued, particularly when the impact of January’s re-weighting of the CPI basket is taken into... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update President Rousseff heads to Beijing President Rousseff's trip to Beijing this week is likely to produce a welter of statistics illustrating how both countries have benefitted from each other's respective development in recent years. But... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Mar.) A strong rebound in exports propelled China's trade back into a small surplus last month. There was still a deficit over the first quarter as a whole, but the difference from a year ago can be... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q1) The results of China’s largest quarterly business survey, released today, add to the pile of evidence that economic growth peaked at the end of 2010. There are tentative signs that growth is shifting... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of today's rate hike? The timing of today’s rate hike was a minor surprise but the bigger picture is that interest rates have played a small part in China’s tightening cycle to date. We think that monetary tightening over... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Mar.) China’s official PMI rose in March but, when seasonal factors are taken into account, both it and the alternative index from Markit/HSBC are consistent with the idea that growth has slowed moderately... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Commodity prices drive abrupt rebalancing of China's trade High commodity prices have achieved what the last Five-Year Plan and a string of summits with key trading partners could not: a rebalancing of Chinese trade. In this China Watch we consider the... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity growth levelling out The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) provides further evidence that economic growth has levelled out over the last quarter. Market worries about overheating and dramatic monetary... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Households on the back foot The recent data suggest that China’s households are increasingly reluctant to spend. Real retail sales growth slumped to a five-year low in the first two months of 2011. Other measures of household... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Overheating concerns set to decline Evidence is mounting that China’s overheating threat is receding. The People’s Bank will continue to raise reserve requirements, as it did today, to ensure that bank lending remains under control... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q1 2011 China’s businesses are signalling that demand is slowing. Households are slightly less concerned about inflation than they were three months ago. By a wide margin, they still prefer to save rather... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Retail sales slowdown highlights challenge of rebalancing With the usual volatility around Chinese New Year and revisions to the way key data are collected clouding the view, about the only clear picture that emerges from China’s latest data is that retail... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Feb.) China’s unexpected trade deficit in February reflects both distortions around Chinese New Year and the impact high commodity prices are having on China’s import bill. Leading indicators of export... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation trouble underlines China’s growth failures Premier Wen Jiabao put price stability at the centre of the government’s concerns in his speech at the weekend. So here is a question for delegates to the National People’s Congress to ponder during... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Non-food inflation has continued to rise but we remain sanguine about the outlook, not least because much of the latest increase seems to be due to the introduction of new index weights. High oil... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China committed to rebalancing? Much of the talk at the National People’s Congress is of the need to boost domestic demand. But with the finance ministry projecting an even smaller budget deficit for 2011 than 2010, the government’s... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
