China Economics Update Does China face a hard landing? China has been slowing for a while but a hard landing is unlikely. The threat from power shortages is less severe than may first seem and with inflation likely to fade – in part due to slower growth –... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China serious about rebalancing? China’s current account surplus will soon rebound unless the government embraces significant policy reform. The Five-Year Plan signals that there is widespread agreement in principle on the need to... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Power shortages unlikely to undermine growth Power shortages are adding to investor concerns about the outlook for China’s growth. The main problem is that the government has not allowed regulated electricity prices to increase in line with the... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand to disappoint Expectations that buoyant Chinese demand will drive commodity prices ever higher have been looking increasingly shaky. For a start, China’s imports of many key commodities have actually been falling... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong Hong Kong growth stokes property bubble fears Hong Kong is on course for another year of above-trend growth after a strong performance in Q1, but its property bubble is growing. Prices could plausibly halve if buyers started to question how long... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation high, activity unexpectedly weak Inflation fell last month but it remains at a level that will keep China’s policymakers on edge. There was also further evidence that the economy was weaker at the start of Q2 than previously thought... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline inflation probably fell last month on the back of sharp outright falls in vegetable prices. With economic growth stabilising, policymakers signalling they are willing to tolerate faster... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Apr.) Weaker-than-expected imports brought China’s trade account back into a large surplus in April. Imports from Japan fell, but most striking was the slide in total commodity purchases. We estimate that... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Thaw in US-China relations unlikely to last Today’s economic discussions between China and the US are taking place in an atmosphere of unusual warmth. There are two obvious reasons – the fall in China’s trade surplus and the renminbi’s recent... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting inflation? China’s struggle with rising prices is reverberating around the world. Domestic inflation is the highest it has been in nearly three years. Wages are increasing at a double-digit annual pace. No... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilising The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth is stabilising. Neither overheating nor a hard landing appears an imminent threat. 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s dollar dilemma unresolved S&P’s decision to put a negative outlook on the US’s AAA credit rating will have been greeted with wry smiles in Beijing. Officials there have long been of the view that US policymakers cannot be... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A policy shift on the renminbi China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation . This may not last long if inflation drops back in the second half of the year, as we expect. For... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Activity slows, inflation concerns remain China’s Q1 GDP data confirm that the economy has slowed, though the seasonally-adjusted figures were less enlightening than we had hoped. The continued strength of food price inflation is a concern... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the new financing measure? The People’s Bank today launched a new measure of financing conditions. In this Update we outline what the new measure is and how useful we expect it to be. 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank still intervening heavily China may have recorded a trade deficit last quarter but the pace of its intervention to hold down the renminbi barely slowed. Meanwhile, a rebound in lending last month is consistent with our view... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
