Commodities Update PMI signals Chinese demand still losing momentum The ongoing deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for July should offset at least some of the reassurance provided to commodity markets by the seemingly robust official data on... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth bottoming out The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggest that economic growth picked up slightly at the end of Q2, after slowing from the start of the year. 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth bottoming out The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth picked up slightly at the end of Q2, after slowing from the start of the year. 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still-rising pork prices add to near-term inflation risks Pork prices continued to rise in the first half of July. But the pace at which they are rising has slowed. Pig numbers are picking up – helped in part by high prices – and the government is releasing... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How interest rate policy undermines China’s growth Many of China’s smaller companies are struggling as government efforts to control inflation cause their borrowing costs to soar. The solution, as strange as it may sound, is for benchmark interest... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hard landing fears recede, but imbalances grow China’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data should reduce fears about a hard landing in the near future. But the structural trends were less encouraging: consumer spending continues to fall as a share... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What was behind the lending rebound? Last month’s lending rebound was driven by short-term credit and may have done more for asset markets than the economy. Medium and long-term lending increased by the least since 2008. 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to panic over inflation surge June's increase in inflation was largely caused by an acceleration in pork prices which is unlikely to last. Non-food prices did not rise at all last month, supporting the view that broad price... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do the leading indicators tell us about the outlook? Evidence has mounted over the past month that China’s economy is slowing. In this China Watch we take a closer look at China’s leading indicators for clues about the outlook. We also preview the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could rate hikes push China into a hard landing? Today’s benchmark rate increase signals that officials still view inflation as the major near-term threat to China. There will be little direct impact on the economy and the move does not make a hard... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy still slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy slowed further last month. Annual GDP growth may still be around 9% for the current quarter, but momentum has continued to... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Equity markets may be turning the corner After falling for two months, Chinese equities have clawed back some of their losses in the last few days. We think that the recovery in equity prices has much further to go. 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
