China Economics Update Premier Wen unshaken by market turmoil Policymakers in other emerging markets may be reassessing their options after a month of dire data from the major Western economies. But the government in Beijing appears confident that China can... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Aug.) China’s PMIs are both signalling that conditions in manufacturing improved last month. In each case, the rebound is small. But at a time of uncertainty about the outlook we would take some reassurance... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Signs of summer growth revival The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that economic growth picked up in the last couple of months, supported by rapid growth in construction. 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi spurt revives talk of currency reform The renminbi has retreated after gaining 0.6% against the dollar in two days earlier in August, damping hopes that faster movement would be sustained in the months to come. But the unusually-abrupt... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Any support from China to prove temporary The stabilisation in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for August, along with (surely premature) hopes of additional monetary stimulus in the US, is providing some temporary support for... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash PMI (Aug.) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI estimate for August from HSBC/Markit suggests that the economy remains weak but that growth is at least stabilising. 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How could China help the rest of the world? China has room to stimulate demand in the event of a slump in growth and could also play a role in stabilising global markets. But there is less space for a major stimulus today than in 2008. As then... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (July) Today’s data show that both net new lending and growth in broad money fell last month. These figures provide further support for our view that the balance of concerns in China is soon likely to shift... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (July) Today’s trade data for July should ease fears that China’s exports are being hit by slowing global growth. Nonetheless, the increase in the trade surplus underlines the fact that China is not... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rises, but economic activity is weak China's consumer-price inflation remained high in July, while activity data suggest that growth was sluggish at the start of the third quarter. On the face of it, this poses a dilemma for China's... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Pork prices fell in the second half of July. It is too soon to sound the all-clear. But given that consumer price inflation in everything except pork was stable over the first half of the year, this... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is investment-driven growth running out of steam? China’s investment-driven economic model is not showing signs of strain at present but growth is unlikely to be as smooth as most expect over the next few years. We have pencilled in a well-below... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) Today’s PMIs signal that China’s manufacturing sector is still weak. Nonetheless, we continue to think that the slowdown in the overall economy has bottomed out. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China react to a US downgrade? China may be the US government’s largest foreign creditor but it has no better option than to hope for the best and try to calm any market jitters in the event of a US downgrade. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash PMI (Jul.) Today’s flash estimate of July’s manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit puts a dent in the more confident outlook resulting from last week’s better-than-expected figures on Q2 GDP. But there are a couple... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
