Commodities Update China’s Imports of Commodities (Sep.) China’s commodity imports rose in the third quarter, particularly those of iron ore and copper. In our view, this was more a reflection of bargain-hunting rather than a strong upswing in underlying... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q3) China’s largest quarterly business survey, released today, reinforces the view that economic growth has steadied so far this year. Most firms expect conditions to worsen, though not dramatically. But... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Sep) Chinese officials have given little sign they are worried that the euro-zone crisis will hurt China’s economy, preferring instead to keep their focus on tackling inflation. Today’s trade figures... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) We think consumer price inflation probably rebounded a touch last month, but still expect it to drop below 5% by the end of the year. As it does, policymakers are likely to start loosening controls on... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi on the move again The renminbi’s rapid gains in recent days should have quashed speculation that the People’s Bank has reintroduced a dollar peg. China is likely to come under significant external pressure to keep the... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big a risk is a Chinese property crash? The boom in China’s construction sector has played an important role in driving demand for industrial metals, notably copper but also steel. Although there are two good reasons why the sector should... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China facing a property market collapse? Property developers in China are facing a grim year ahead, with a likely slump in project starts set to drag on broader economic growth. The sector should nonetheless be able to avoid a collapse... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The final reading of China’s September manufacturing PMI was stronger than the flash estimate and adds to the evidence that conditions in manufacturing have stabilised. 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilising The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that growth has stabilised over the last three months, albeit at a much slower pace than China has been used to. 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Global weakness to drag on growth While pessimism has been growing about the world economy, the last month’s data from China have actually not been that bad. But China’s economy is weaker today than on the eve of the global crisis... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s flash PMI from China has done nothing to lift the spirits of global markets. On the bright side, conditions in manufacturing have at least stopped deteriorating over recent months. But chances... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2011 Households in China are expecting consumer prices to continue rising rapidly. But with businesses reporting weakening demand, falling capacity utilisation and rising inventories, that could soon... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Import data point to recovery in domestic demand Neither rising wages nor growing fears about the global outlook seem to be causing any difficulties for China’s exporters. Meanwhile, the latest import data are consistent with a strong pick-up in... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
