China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (Oct.) Today’s data show that net new lending rebounded last month, while growth in broad money fell slightly. We expect credit controls to be eased officially soon and therefore see lending picking up... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Oct.) Demand for China’s exports is much weaker than today’s headline growth figures suggest. We expect a sharp slowdown in export growth in November. But imports are growing strongly, implying that... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation tumbles Inflation fell sharply in October and further falls are likely in coming months. With downside risks to economic growth high and rising, today’s data bolster our confidence that China’s policy is set... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably fell sharply in October and we expect a further steep fall in November. Credit policy is likely to be loosened in coming weeks. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on cusp of policy shift The coming few weeks are likely to mark a turning point in Chinese policy. October’s data should provide the clearest evidence yet that inflation is fading. Signs of stress are building in the real... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs moved in opposite directions in October. We suspect that inventory restocking explains the rise in the more upbeat HSBC/Markit index. With final demand set to remain... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth holds up in face of headwinds The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy was strong to the end of Q3. But weaker growth lies ahead. 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI estimate for October from HSBC/Markit supports our view that China’s economy has at least been stablising. However, production is unlikely to pick up... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No hard landing for China but demand outlook still poor The pick-up in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI has eased concerns that the economy is about to crash land, but a period of relatively weak growth still lies ahead. What’s more, the latest euro... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Smaller firms feel tightening squeeze China’s attempts to rein in off-balance-sheet lending by banks have compounded the difficulties faced by smaller firms that were already cut off from formal credit channels. Net new bank lending last... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stable in Q3, but problems looming China’s Q3 data confirmed that growth was stable last quarter, but with both exports and real estate construction likely to slow, a more difficult period lies ahead. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the fall in China’s FX reserves? The fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month raises some potentially far-reaching questions about the nature of China’s currency intervention and whether it has been... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation in decline Inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction, opening space for policy to be eased if necessary to support the economy. Credit quotas could be loosened before the end of the year. 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
