China Economics Update Inflation plummets, activity slows November’s drop in inflation was even sharper than expected and the data on investment and industrial output were weak too. The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation may have fallen a percentage point or more in November. It will be a while before the impact of policy stimulus is felt, with the result that China faces a period of below... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for Asian markets? Following changes to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up, we have revised down our forecasts for emerging Asia’s currency and equity markets for next year. However, we see both... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for China’s markets? Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) Even after a run of disappointing data, today’s PMIs were worse than most expected. It will be a while before policy easing helps the economy to turn the corner. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank signals major shift With a statement comprising a single sentence on its website, the People’s Bank of China today signalled a major policy shift. Incoming economic data have been weak and the global outlook is worsening... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth has slowed significantly. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble? Although Asia as a whole is not experiencing a property price bubble, we believe that prices in Hong Kong and Taipei are now in bubble territory. There is a growing risk of a sharp correction in these... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese slowdown adds to global concerns China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI for November fell back markedly, to well below 50, raising fears of a hard landing in the largest commodity consumer. We still believe that a hard landing in China... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The unexpectedly sharp drop in China’s flash PMI for November, if corroborated by other indicators, is likely to push policymakers to go beyond policy “fine-tuning” to outright easing. Today’s... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the rebound in China's copper imports? The recent pick-up in Chinese imports of refined copper has been interpreted as a sign that underlying demand is rebounding in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. However, a closer look... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy starts to turn Policymakers started talking in late October of the need for “fine-tuning”. There is now mounting evidence that policy has begun to shift direction. The People’s Bank lowered the yield on one-year... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How badly will China’s exporters be hit? Rapid wage growth, renminbi appreciation and inflation have not put much of a dent in China’s export competitiveness. We expect export growth to halve next year, but for Chinese exporters nonetheless... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong facing a difficult year ahead Hong Kong escaped falling into recession in the third quarter, but the economy remains very weak. Given our forecast that global growth will slow further next year, and the risks of a local property... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
