Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Seasonal factors linked to Chinese New Year slowed inflation’s decline in December. The payback will come once the festival has passed when the headline rate is likely to register another significant... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Dec.) Today’s trade data show an unexpectedly large drop in import growth. This may simply be a correction after a couple of months of relative strength, but it adds to the picture of slowing growth in... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese copper imports hit record high in December China’s overall imports of commodities weakened slightly in December but the fourth quarter of last year as a whole was still strong. Indeed, imports of copper hit a record high last month. However... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NBS business conditions survey (Q4) China’s largest quarterly business survey shows that confidence among property developers has collapsed. Among firms more generally, it is private companies that – once again – are faring worst. 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation may have stabilised in December, partly due to seasonal factors. But with spare capacity rising, further significant falls are likely after Chinese New Year. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity continues to slow The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that economic growth has continued to slow. Our initial estimate is that the economy expanded less than 7% q/q in annualised terms in Q4. 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Weak start to 2012 After a run of bad data, many are now looking at prospects for 2012 with a sense of foreboding. GDP growth in Q4 may have dropped below 7% q/q in annualised terms. Monetary conditions have loosened a... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) China’s flash PMI for December rebounded, but it remains below 50. What’s more, finished goods inventories are rising and some of the recent activity seems to have been aimed at clearing backlogs... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers embrace pro-growth stance It takes some reading between the lines in today’s statement on policy priorities for 2012 to find evidence that the policy setting has changed. Nonetheless, the shift is real. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Nov.) China’s latest trade data provide some room for optimism despite the downbeat headline figures. Restocking may explain most of the pick-up in commodity imports, but non-commodity imports increased too... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese commodity imports are not set to last The volume of China’s commodity imports rose markedly in November, bolstered by weaker prices spurring restocking, probably instead of any upturn in final demand. Indeed, recent steps by the Chinese... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
