China Economics Update What to watch for at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Monday. In this China Watch, we highlight the key issues. We also preview forthcoming data releases. We expect them... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) A third consecutive increase in both of China’s manufacturing PMIs should dispel any lingering concern about an imminent hard landing. But with a post-Chinese New Year rebound in hiring and activity... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices to fall back as China’s demand disappoints Soybean prices have strengthened recently on hopes of continued robust demand from China, the world’s major importer, reflected in news of increased purchases from the US. However, we expect growth in... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A tale of two exchanges Copper stocks on the two main metal exchanges have been moving almost continuously in opposite directions since the start of the year. As a result, LME stocks are at a 2-year low, but inventories on... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How rapidly will China relax capital controls? China is slowly relaxing its capital controls but unfettered cross-border flows won’t be allowed until the currency floats and the financial sector has been overhauled. This could take a decade, but... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The flash PMI released today suggests that conditions in manufacturing have stabilised but are relatively subdued. Foreign demand appears to have weakened. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could increased Chinese demand boost London house prices? Recent growth in the number of Chinese buyers in the London residential market has raised hopes (or fears) that as and when the renminbi becomes fully convertible the floodgates could open. However... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy loosening proceeds at a crawl Nearly three months after the People’s Bank signalled a shift in stance and first cut the required reserve ratio, policy remains tight. Admittedly, benchmark interest rates never climbed back to the... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gradual policy easing to continue The weekend cut to reserve requirements was so long in coming that some investors had begun to question whether the People’s Bank was really committed to policy loosening at all. We believe it is... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Current account surplus falling but trade frictions to remain Data released on the eve of Vice President Xi Jinping's visit to the US show that China's current account surplus has continued to tumble. But plenty of potential sources of trade friction remain. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prices to drop sharply on euro break-up fears Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Foreign Trade (Jan.) We draw two very tentative conclusions from today’s lending and trade data: domestic demand is still slowing and the pace of policy easing is very slow. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
