China Activity Monitor Economy not recovering yet The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy slowed in the first two months of the year after a short rebound in December. 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today’s downbeat flash PMI figures suggest that conditions in China’s manufacturing sector are still weak. However, fears about a hard landing look overdone. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How tight is China’s corn market? Recent industry reports suggest that China’s corn production in 2011/12 could be as much as 14% lower than current official estimates. As a result, China’s imports are likely to be considerably higher... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for stimulus to be felt The data for the first two months of the year were in general downbeat. Everything from imports to electricity and cement production slowed. Still, Q1 was always likely to be weak. Policy loosening... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2012 Business confidence in China has perked up this quarter, although demand has continued to slow. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people think property prices are excessive now than a few months ago but... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Key challenges await Hong Kong’s new chief executive Regardless of which candidate wins the election on Sunday, the new chief executive will face a series of challenges as Hong Kong grapples with how best to deal with slowing exports, rising inequality... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do Wen’s comments mean for property and the renminbi? Today’s comments from Premier Wen Jiabao at the close of the National People’s Congress have sparked interest in the outlook for China’s property and exchange rate policies and in the prospects for... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stop worrying about the new growth target The implications of China lowering its growth target have, in our view, been widely misunderstood. The lower target will have no direct impact on policy. Slower growth in China’s economy would also... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to drop as China’s demand falls short Speculation this week has focused on the overall pace of China’s GDP growth, but the greater downside risk to the prices of industrial metals over the medium term is the prospect of a decline in the... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls, but activity disappoints at start of year Today’s spending and output data were disappointing, suggesting the apparent turnaround at the end of last year has already run out of steam. There are clouds on the horizon too: property sales are... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) We think consumer price inflation dropped significantly in February. We expect further small falls to the middle of the year, which will provide room for more policy easing. Oil prices at their... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Key takeaways from the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress has thrown up a new growth target – exactly as expected – and confirmation that the government is holding the line on property market controls. 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
