Commodities Update Risks to China’s commodity demand still skewed downwards North Korea’s rocket program appears to be at greater risk of an imminent “hard landing” than China’s economy. But beyond that, today’s Q1 GDP data tell us little about the prospects for China’s... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government commits to further loosening China’s growth continued to slow in Q1. But there were some clues in the latest data that the economy is bottoming out and, with the State Council giving a strong signal today that credit policy will... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy easing starting to have an impact Much stronger-than-expected lending in March adds to the likelihood that tomorrow’s Q4 GDP figures will be reassuringly strong and signals that policy easing is starting to have an effect. Meanwhile... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Optimism on China’s current account is premature Given China’s failure to rein in investment-led growth, its current account surplus is likely to rebound both in dollar terms a year or two from now and relative to its own GDP too. Relative to world... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q1) The results of China’s largest quarterly business survey, released today, reinforce the view that economic activity weakened in Q1, but also suggest that many firms have turned more positive about the... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports show signs of weakening Many analysts have focused on the still-high levels of China’s commodity imports in March and the rapid year-on-year growth rate. However, the seasonally adjusted data show imports ended the quarter... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade & CPI (Mar.) March’s trade figures from China paint a picture of slow but steady growth in global demand alongside further weakening at home. 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia’s costly fuel subsidies to remain in place The recent increase in oil prices is putting the budgets of countries that operate fuel subsidy regimes under strain. Nevertheless, any meaningful reform of subsidy programmes across Asia looks... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the increase in QFII and RQFII quotas mean? The increase in the amount of funds foreign investors are allowed to invest in China’s financial markets is the latest in a series of steps that relax controls on cross-border capital flows. The move... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Consumer price inflation may have edged up in March, but this would still largely reflect volatility around Chinese New Year. The recent increase in gasoline prices should have little impact on the... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would a hard landing in China affect Australia? In the event of a hard landing in China, Australia would suffer a sharp fall in exports to its biggest trading partner. Global commodity prices would tumble given China’s importance for commodity... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing still soft despite strong official PMI The divergence between China’s two manufacturing PMIs for March, released over the weekend, largely reflects the seasonal strength and perhaps a bias towards larger firms in the official index. On... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would a wider RMB trading band make? The next major reform in China’s exchange rate policy is likely to be a widening of the renminbi’s daily trading band with the dollar. In this month’s China Watch, we consider the implications of such... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China's move up the value chain a threat to Asian economies? As China develops, its manufacturing firms are moving into higher-value sectors. While this is a boon for low-wage Asian economies that represent a good alternative for low-end producers... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to worry about low-end exports losing market share China’s share of the world’s low-end exports has started to fall. This reflects a shift by Chinese producers into sectors where margins are higher rather than a failure to compete. China’s export... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who in Asia will benefit from rising labour costs in China? After years of strong growth, China’s textile and apparel exports are now losing market share abroad. Indeed, high and rising labour costs in China mean the migration of low-end manufacturing out of... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
