Commodities Update China’s commodity imports drop back Chinese commodity imports have been undermined by weak industrial demand and high stockpiles. We expect these factors to continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Apr.) Imports were far weaker than expected last month, raising questions about the strength of domestic demand at the start of Q2. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Consumer price inflation probably fell back slightly in April. Reforms to the pricing of water, electricity and gas will probably push up non-food inflation over coming months, but not by enough to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak loan demand holding back the recovery? Policymakers’ attempts to stimulate China’s economy have so far centred on increasing the amount that banks can lend. But many are concerned that weak loan demand is hampering these efforts. In this... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The final release of the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI today turned up some surprises, with new orders much stronger than on the flash estimate and employment far weaker. The headline PMI rose, but... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Today’s continued pick-up in China’s official PMI adds to the evidence that conditions in manufacturing have stopped deteriorating. But this survey is skewed towards larger firms and so probably... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export improvement brings fragile recovery Emerging Asia’s economies fared better in Q1 than Q4. Both Singapore and Taiwan returned to quarterly growth, while Korea’s economy grew at a faster q/q rate. Business and consumer surveys show an... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Chinese tourism bonanza for Asia The past 15 years has seen a surge in the number of mainland Chinese travelling overseas. Although Chinese tourists are becoming increasingly adventurous and travelling further afield, the vast... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Glimmers of hope in March It was not hard to find evidence of economic weakness in China in Q1. Imports, retail spending, property sales and, of course, GDP growth all slowed. But there were glimmers of a turnaround towards... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q1 weak, but better in March The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy was weaker than official GDP figures show in Q1, but there are signs in March’s data that the economy is close to bottoming... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs paint worrying picture The first estimates of the Chinese and euro-zone manufacturing PMIs for April remained below 50 and are consistent with further sharp falls in the prices of industrial metals. Most worryingly, the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) China’s flash manufacturing PMI for April rose, but the small increase will have disappointed anyone hoping for a clear signal that the economy is bottoming out. 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia well placed to withstand weaker global growth Asia is well placed to withstand the impact of any major shocks to the global economy. The health of economic fundamentals and policymakers’ room for stimulus should enable the region to grow by just... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the widened renminbi band? The immediate impact of a wider renminbi trading band on the exchange rate will be small, we suspect, but the reform is an important signal of renewed momentum behind economic policy liberalisation. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
