China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation probably eased only slightly in May, but we expect larger falls to come in the next couple of months. This should reassure policymakers that they can continue to focus on... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate cuts underline determination to shore up growth Today’s benchmark interest rate cuts are a strong signal that policymakers are going all out to shore up China’s economy. Commercial banks are also being allowed to set both lending and deposit rates... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Who in Asia is most vulnerable to a hard landing in China? Recent weak data from China has led to renewed fears of a hard landing in Asia’s biggest economy. The countries most exposed would be those for which China is an important export market such as Hong... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) There was further disappointment in today’s manufacturing PMIs from China. But the May surveys were largely conducted before the shift of policy stance in the last third of the month and so tell us... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why are fiscal options being neglected? Despite a healthy budget position, the stimulus plans being unveiled in China are heavily-weighted towards investment. In this China Watch we ask why fiscal options are being neglected. We also look... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A primer on China’s PMIs China’s two manufacturing PMIs are now among the world’s most closely-watched pieces of economic data. In this Focus, we take a close look, highlighting which of the two indices and their components... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's stimulus dilemma China’s policymakers have the ability to shore up economic growth in the short-term. But in doing so, they will increase the chances that the economy will experience a sharper slump two or three years... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) China’s flash manufacturing PMI for May was, again, very weak. But a turnaround may not be far away, given the recent shift in policy stance. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus set to fuel recovery We believe that the stimulus efforts unveiled in the last few days will be sufficient to drive an economic recovery in the second half of 2012 but at the cost of further entrenching China’s economic... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad were the Q1 data for emerging Asia? Most of Asia reported weak GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, due mainly to weak export demand. The crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh heavily on Asia this year. However, the... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor April weakness prompts stimulus response The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that the economy took an abrupt turn for the worse in April. The government is now ramping up its stimulus but the impact will come too late... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a rebalancing of China’s economy mean for Asia? A rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and towards consumption would be bad for the region’s capital goods and commodities exporters, with Korea, Indonesia and Australia likely to be... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack April disappointment The data for April were appalling. Economic activity was much weaker than expected across a wide swath of the economy, with imports, industrial output and fiscal revenue hit particularly hard... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Required reserve ratio cut not enough to trigger rebound This weekend’s policy move by the People’s Bank is likely to be the precursor to a more explicitly pro-growth stance from China’s government. April’s awful data suggest that officials so far this year... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong falters in Q1 Hong Kong’s economy had a weak start to the year, expanding in Q1 at the same tepid pace as in Q4 and confounding hopes that growth would accelerate. We think growth will probably pick up over the... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update April slump to prompt more easing Just about everything in China’s economy seems to have gone backwards in April. Growth of retail spending, investment, industrial output and imports declined. Lending slowed. On the positive side... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
