Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jul.) Today’s trade and lending figures brought more disappointment. Exports to the US suffered their worst drop since late-2008, while lending fell well short of expectations. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound remains elusive China’s stimulus efforts are feeding a pick-up in infrastructure investment but recovery has not so far spread to the rest of the economy. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows still under control Fears about capital leaving China are overdone. Recent pressure on the People’s Bank to sell foreign exchange appears to be the result of greater willingness among Chinese firms to hold on to their... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local governments’ stimulus won’t fuel a sharp rebound Local governments across China have unveiled a series of stimulus plans, echoing the recent message from top authorities of the need to ensure strong growth. More stimulus plans are likely to follow... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs for July were slightly worse than anticipated. However, they are still in keeping with recent policy stimulus taking effect. In particular, small firms look to be... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.12) Consumer price inflation should have fallen slightly in July. Although we expect a gradual pick-up in the months ahead, overall inflation is likely to remain low, allowing policymakers’ focus to stay... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Conditions in China’s manufacturing sector have improved, according to today’s flash PMI, although the recovery could not yet be described as strong. 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economy The recent surge in global agricultural commodity prices – if sustained – will add to the downside risks to China’s economy but it is unlikely to be a decisive factor. Overall inflationary pressures... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth steadied at end-Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the broad economy stopped weakening in June, providing some support to the view that activity will pick up in the next few quarters. 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), retail sales, ind. output etc. (Jun.) We continue to believe that China’s economy is not doing as well as the already downbeat official figures suggest. But there are signs that growth will soon pick up. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-term Today’s strong lending data cast last week’s rate cut in a new light. Policy is being eased further even though earlier stimulus measures had already started to take effect. That suggests the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jun.) Three points leap out from China’s June trade data. Exports to the US have taken a sudden turn for the worse. Commodity imports have slumped. And the trade surplus has returned to the level it was at... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
