China Economics Update Growth expectations edge down The continued weakness in China’s monthly data has prompted us to knock down our forecast for GDP growth this year. Next year is likely to be disappointing too. 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up slightly last month. It is likely to rise further in coming months, constraining policymakers’ ability to support the economy. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s smaller savings surplus little threat to Treasuries One popular misconception is that China’s reinvestment of its “surplus” savings has directly depressed long-term US Treasury yields. If this were true, why have yields remained so low in recent years... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Ten key questions about China’s property market China’s economic prospects depend in large part on what happens to its property market. In this Focus, we answer the key questions on affordability, empty housing and over-investment that will... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs both dropped in August to their lowest levels since November last year. Small firms are struggling, which is no great surprise. But large firms are finding conditions... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can the economy recover without a rebound in property? When the global financial crisis hit, a surge in real estate investment helped China’s economy escape the slump. The government in Beijing is trying to engineer a recovery from the current downturn... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak start to Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy slowed in July after steadying at the end of Q2. A further deterioration in exports and real estate construction has... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further reserve requirement cuts still likely The People’s Bank of China has this week conducted the most aggressive open market operations of the year, leading to questions over whether it is shifting away from its reliance on the required... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMI adds to worries about commodities demand China’s flash manufacturing PMI has dropped to its lowest level this year. So far today the impact on commodity prices has been trumped by hopes of further quantitative easing from the US Fed. However... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The weakness in today’s flash PMI suggests that hopes for an economic recovery in the current quarter will be dashed, again. 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market rebound tests policymakers Market sentiment about China’s property policy has executed an abrupt U-turn. Early this year, speculation was mounting that the government would loosen its controls on the sector in response to the... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will weak emerging market demand prevent a gold rally? Demand in China and India, the world’s two largest gold consumers, has been unusually been weak in recent months, which has dragged gold prices lower. However, we expect another escalation of the euro... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal Efforts by policymakers in Taiwan and China to strengthen their economic ties have had a negligible impact on Taiwan’s merchandise exports to the mainland, although Taiwan has benefitted in some other... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why is investment not rebounding? Months after policy was loosened, investment growth has barely responded. State-directed investment is picking up but not by enough to offset the reluctance of real estate developers and the rest of... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong economy unlikely to rebound anytime soon Hong Kong’s economy contracted in Q2. With global growth set to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect Hong Kong’s trade-dependent economy to continue to struggle in the coming quarters. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read