China Economics Update Consumption-led rebound remains wishful thinking The apparent strength of tourism and spending during October’s “golden-week” holiday has revived hopes that China could experience a consumer-led rebound. But there is little convincing evidence that... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Sep.) Unexpectedly weak bank lending in September was offset by strong growth in other forms of credit. But credit overall is not growing at a speed likely to fuel a significant economic rebound. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Emerging market exporters face more tough times ahead Emerging market exports have been hit by a broad slowdown in global demand this year, with the last few months proving especially weak. Given the bleak outlook for the global economy, a meaningful... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging markets losing their competitive edge? Among the major emerging market (EM) regions, we estimate that Latin America has experienced the greatest loss of competitiveness over the past few years. In the medium term, weaker productivity... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much scope do emerging markets have to loosen policy? Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Inflation in consumer prices was probably little changed in September. But the outlook is for higher inflation over coming months, which will make policymakers more cautious about further stimulus. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs both picked up in September but give no strong reason to believe that we are on the cusp of a sustained rebound. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Shifting down the gears We expect emerging market (EM) growth to slow to around 4.5% in 2013, with only a modest pick-up to 5.0% in 2014. This would be some way below average growth of 6.1% seen since 2000. What’s more... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is slower growth here to stay? China’s economic slowdown is the result of policy tightening and weak global demand but it also reflects structural shifts in China’s economy. As a result, expectations for a strong and sustained... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 12) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit provides signs of stabilization in China’s economy but not of recovery. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q3 growth on course for another big drop The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy stabilised in August but GDP growth is still likely to slow over Q3 as a whole. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stimulus hopes fizzle out Talk of a new stimulus package in China produced a 4% rally in the Shanghai Composite in the space of two days earlier this month. The turnaround was triggered by the government’s announcement that it... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the stimulus real? We can see no sign of a fresh stimulus in the government’s recent announcements that it has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. Most were already expected to go ahead and, while the... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property still heading for a crash The Hong Kong government has introduced a number of measures to improve housing affordability. We don’t believe these measures will have their intended effect, and that in the short-term property... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, broad credit growth (Aug.) The strength of bank lending in August is a rare piece of positive economic news from China after weeks of downbeat data. But any optimism should be tempered by the fact that borrowing by firms, as... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
