China Chart Pack Renminbi picks up speed ahead of US elections The renminbi has risen 2% against the dollar since the end of July, erasing all of its losses in the year to date. There appear to be two factors at work. One is a renewed appetite for the renminbi... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weight A declaration by a US administration that China is a “currency manipulator” may have no immediate consequences but it would open the door to more substantive trade sanctions against China in future. 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Remittances to emerging markets to remain resilient Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update False dawn for property Some commentators have turned optimistic about the outlook for Chinese residential property. We remain of the view that, with inventories still high, a big pick-up in property investment is unlikely... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct. 12) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit provides further signs of a mild recovery in China’s economy. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity strengthened at end-Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) provides further evidence that the pace of growth in China’s economy accelerated last month. 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s growth outlook means for commodities? Consensus expectations for China’s growth and commodity demand have already been marked down but we think this adjustment still has further to go. With the crisis in the euro-zone also likely to... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy stabilising, on course for weak recovery Today’s data releases provide the strongest signs yet that China’s economy stabilised in Q3, along with glimmers of hope that a recovery began towards the end of the quarter. But we are sceptical that... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth subdued, but stabilising Emerging market GDP appears to have grown by around 4.5% y/y in Q3 – broadly the same rate as in Q2, but well down on the 8% y/y growth rates seen in 2010. At a regional level, Emerging Asia has... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pain of China’s slowdown is spread unevenly Debates over whether China is facing a “hard landing” generally miss the point that an economic slowdown can affect different groups in different ways. Right now, Chinese policymakers seem not too... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
