Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow growth in Hong Kong set to continue into 2013 Hong Kong’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, but the pace of expansion was still very weak. With the global economy likely to remain depressed over the next year, a strong rebound... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reform The unveiling of China’s new leadership in the Great Hall of the People today has dented hopes of economic policy reform. Of the three “reformist” candidates thought to have had a chance of joining... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging market vehicle sales hint at consumer slowdown The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow loan growth no concern given signs of economic recovery The tepid pace of bank lending revealed in figures released today will not be much of a concern to policymakers given the upbeat tone of recent economic data, including October’s double-digit increase... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the October surprise too good to be true? China’s October activity data provide the strongest signs so far of economic recovery. Given that they have been published while the Party Congress is in session, some sceptics have questioned whether... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export improvement so far limited to Asia There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs improve, but EM manufacturing growth still sluggish The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The pick-up in China’s two manufacturing PMIs provides further signs of recovery in October, with particular strength in new orders. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Who will lead China? China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition reaches a climax in November when a new generation takes control of the Party. In this China Watch, we ask who the key figures of the new leadership are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
