Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) China’s consumer price inflation is picking up and could spike much higher around February’s Chinese New Year holiday. It will be higher than today once that seasonal distortion passes, but we don’t... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stronger export orders boost EM manufacturers A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs are both above 50 for the first time in over a year. But the recovery is unbalanced, with smaller firms reporting that conditions are the weakest in six months. 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Recovery to fade in 2013 The government is likely to set a low target for growth next year that the economy will beat. But expectations that China’s growth will continue to accelerate through 2013 are likely to be... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s happening to China’s unreported copper stocks? The conventional method of estimating China’s copper consumption has probably been exaggerating industrial demand for the red metal since the middle of 2011. This is because it does not allow for... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC foreign exchange purchases set to resume Purchases of foreign exchange by the People’s Bank have slowed to a crawl this year. We believe this is a pause in, rather than the end of, China’s era of massive foreign reserve accumulation. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What lies ahead for EM domestic demand? Strong domestic demand has partially offset export weakness in many emerging economies this year, particularly in Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for domestic demand look favourable in emerging Asia... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation slows, strong pick-up unlikely ahead Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed in October. Even if inflation does pick up again in the coming months as a result of past increases in commodity prices, the big picture is that any rise is... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging market foreign exchange reserves adequate? Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov. 12) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit provides further reassurance that recovery is underway, but hopes for a strong rebound will probably be disappointed given lingering weakness in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor A real turnaround The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that China’s economy has picked up speed. So far though, the recovery still looks weak and lopsided, with key sectors being left out. 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Private sector on sidelines of investment rebound The last two months have brought strong evidence that China’s economy is picking up speed. But this is a lopsided recovery. Small firms are still struggling, according to the official manufacturing... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM currencies are cheap and which are expensive? Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
