Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Bright start to the year Emerging markets are in a sweet spot at the moment. Economic growth appears to have accelerated towards 5% y/y in Q4 of last year, led by a rebound in the Chinese economy. At the same time, aside from... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Shanghai equities soar The Shanghai Composite index has risen 17% since early December. Even so, a trailing price/earnings ratio under 13 and the backdrop of a strengthening economy suggest that prices could rise much... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Today’s better-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit supports the view that China’s recovery is continuing at the start of the year. But distortions around Chinese New Year mean... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery continues, but remains fragile The latest data show further strengthening in emerging market exports towards the end of 2012. However, the pace of export growth remains weak by historic standards. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Income inequality is an economic as well as social issue Wide income inequality in China is undermining economic stability as well generating concerns about social tensions. 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from rising labour costs in China? China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's share of global FDI rising, not falling We are sceptical that published FDI data tell us much about China’s economic outlook. For what it’s worth though – and contrary to the headlines – today’s figures suggest the China is increasing its... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How is government spending affecting EM growth? In parts of the emerging market world, an increasingly pro-cyclical government spending bias threatens to contribute to a more volatile pattern of growth. Within Latin America there is a risk that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Freezing weather drove food prices and inflation higher last month but, as we head into the Chinese New Year period, underlying price pressures appear subdued. 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow start to 2013 in the US will hold back EMs The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stirring property sector reawakens over-investment fears Property construction in China still needs to slow further to return the real estate sector to a sustainable path. Accordingly, the recent pick-up in investment by developers should not be welcomed... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crumbling BRICs The economic outlook for the emerging world has brightened with most regions on course for a pick-up in growth in early 2013. But expectations for a rapid and sustained rebound are likely to be... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) December’s data will give us the last “clean” view of inflation before price volatility around Chinese New Year obscures the picture. They are likely to show that consumer price inflation is rising... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
