China Economics Update Demand strong from overseas but appears weaker at home China’s exports were far stronger than expected last month. By contrast, import growth remains slow. In particular, the recent acceleration in domestic activity has done little to boost commodity... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb. 13) Inflation will have spiked higher last month because of price rises ahead of Chinese New Year, but it should drop back in March. Looking further ahead, inflation is likely to rise but we think the... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery stutters The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update February PMIs show continued weakness The February PMIs for emerging Asia were weak, with little sign of upward momentum across the region. Despite policy easing at home, the uncertain outlook for the developed world means Asia’s... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb. 13) Seasonal factors may have played a part, but the weakness of China’s two manufacturing PMIs last month cannot entirely be explained by the timing of Chinese New Year. They suggest that the economic... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crumbling BRICs - will the largest EMs regain their vigour? The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing still on unsustainable path A slowdown in property construction was the main reason that China’s economy slowed last year. Even so, the sector remains on an unsustainable path. It may be years before policymakers can sensibly... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of recovery in Hong Kong, but risks to downside Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in Q4, thanks mainly to a pick up in export growth. Prospects for the economy depend largely on the outlook for global demand. As such... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb. 13) Today’s worse-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit dampens hopes of a continued economic acceleration. Even allowing for distortions around Chinese New Year, it appears that the... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step-up rhetoric while EM currencies fall Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC tilts towards tightening Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
