Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending starts to soften EM consumer spending has been one of the bright spots in the global economy in recent years, supported by healthy wage growth, low unemployment and loose monetary policy. But retail sales growth... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Recovery hopes dashed The release of China’s weak Q1 GDP data jolted markets worldwide. Consensus forecasts for 2013 growth have been lowered. The prospect of significant policy tightening, including benchmark rate hikes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hopes for sustained recovery fade Today’s weak GDP data shocked consensus expectations. The most striking detail is the degree to which growth remains dependent on an overstretched property sector and on policy support. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery loses its shine The recovery of Emerging Market exports has continued in recent months, but forward looking indicators suggest that they will soften over the course of Q2. What’s more, a big divergence remains in the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1) The stronger-than-expected rise in bank lending in March will reinforce concerns that credit growth is on an unsustainable path. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank has resumed its accumulation of foreign... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery falters The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports slow but imports accelerate China’s exports cooled last month, correcting the surprisingly strong growth seen earlier this year. By contrast, imports beat expectations, and the increase appears to have been driven by stronger... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in headline inflation in March simply reflects the usual seasonal patterns stemming from the Chinese New Year. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to pick up again soon on... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's economic rebound failing to save others Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus The winners and losers from China's rise China has come to play a key role as an assembly hub at the centre of increasingly sophisticated supply chain networks. For the rest of Asia, the main winners from this process have been those... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce shouldn’t matter much to investors China passed a milestone last year as its working age population fell for the first time in the modern era. Demographic change will have a profound impact on the long-run trajectory of China’s economy... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Consumer price inflation should have dropped back last month as the seasonal distortion caused by Chinese New Year faded. Looking ahead though, recent falls in pig numbers signal that another pork... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook South East Asia to outperform Emerging Asia began the year with plenty of momentum, but the recovery is already showing signs of losing steam. Growth in 2013-14 is likely to be slower than has been the norm. Lacklustre global... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing losing steam The latest PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the emerging world stuttered last month. Activity slowed further in emerging Europe and Latin America. The only region where activity accelerated was... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China moves to manage shadow banking risks The latest tightening of rules on wealth management products will help manage risks building up in China’s shadow banking system. But the long-term route to reducing risk is careful liberalisation of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
