China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in April was driven by a rebound in vegetable prices, which should be short-lived. But headline inflation is still likely to edge higher over the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain weak We estimate that the volume of China’s commodity imports rose y/y for the first time this year in April. But looking beyond the positive headlines, the figures were artificially boosted by calendar... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Calendar effects inflate trade data The acceleration in both export and import growth last month was simply the result of there being more working days in April this year than last. It does not point to strengthening demand either at... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr. 13) Consumer price inflation probably picked up last month, due to a rebound in vegetable prices. Further increases lie ahead. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery fades as BRICs lose steam The April manufacturing PMIs add to evidence that the emerging market (EM) recovery has lost pace in recent months. The slowdown has affected most EM regions, but the BRIC economies seem to have been... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi trading band would be empty gesture A wider trading band for the renminbi is a likely next step in currency policy reform. But it may not happen as soon as many think and, in any case, would probably make little difference to the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Another downbeat data release, this time of China’s official PMI, adds to evidence that the economy remains weak after the slowdown in Q1. Indeed, the headline figure probably overstates current... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industrial boom a mostly Asian story Industrial output in the emerging world has increased by a remarkable 30% in the past five years. Yet impressive growth at an aggregate level masks a wide variation in the performance of individual... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall further China’s equity prices have declined further amid renewed worries about the country’s economy. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank has tolerated recent gains in the renminbi. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation outlook remains subdued Emerging Market (EM) inflation fell back in March as temporary distortions related to the Chinese New Year dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, with underlying price pressures... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China slowdown opens the door for new EM growth stars Recent evidence of weaker economic activity in China and falling global commodity prices supports our view that overall emerging market (EM) growth will disappoint in the years ahead. But while... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs signal demand remains lacklustre The decline in the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone in April, published today, triggered fresh falls in industrial commodity prices, sending copper to an 18-month low. We think... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr. 13) China once again disappointed expectations with today’s release of a downbeat April flash PMI. Nonetheless, with the labour market still looking healthy, we think policymakers will remain focused on... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak to the end of Q1 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy remained weak throughout Q1. The fading of a “leap year effect” made little difference: last quarter’s slowdown was not... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs continue to struggle The recent weakness of the economic data across the emerging world has been exacerbated by calendar effects. Even so, our EM GDP Tracker reveals a broader trend of weakening activity, particularly in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption stimulus should not be welcomed Talk in China of new subsidies to boost household spending is an unwelcome sign that officials may have been diverted by the recent disappointing growth numbers towards thinking of short-term fixes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
