Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker growth keeps EM central banks in easing mode In aggregate terms, EM monetary policy has been loosened over the past six months. But there has been a big difference between the actions of central banks in each EM region. In Europe and, more... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property stocks lead rebound again China’s equity prices have recovered somewhat this month. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been allowed to appreciate at a faster pace. 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi surge undermines case for capital account opening The recent surge in the renminbi may have been an attempt by policymakers to lay the groundwork for a loosening of capital controls. But it has ended up demonstrating why such a move will be difficult... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May 13) Today’s sub-50 reading on the flash PMI will shake the confidence of China’s policymakers, who have remained sanguine in the face of slow growth so far this year. We suspect they will resist the... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What next for the EM recovery? The recovery in emerging market (EM) growth during the second half of 2012 has faltered since the start of this year. This is due in large part to renewed weakness in the BRIC economies, which we... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak start to Q2 The April reading of the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) dampens hope of a quick turnaround in growth this quarter. Worries over avian flu may have played a small part in suppressing... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mirage of strong foreign demand Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at international corporate bond issuance This week’s bumper foreign debt sale by Brazil’s Petrobras has put the spotlight on the fast-expanding overseas market for EM corporate bonds. As it happens, this type of financing is still a small... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth slowdown prompts further easing Economic activity across the emerging world looks to have moderated since the start of the year, with our GDP tracker pointing to weaker growth in Emerging Europe, Emerging Asia and Latin America... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still subdued in April Today’s data releases suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite a strong expansion in credit in recent months. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending (Apr.) Credit growth has continued to accelerate. This hasn’t had a positive impact on economic growth so far but we expect it to feed a small pick-up in activity in the months ahead. 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain lacklustre GDP figures for Q1 released today show growth in Hong Kong remained lacklustre in y/y terms, while in q/q terms the pace of expansion slowed sharply. Looking ahead, with global demand set to... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Exporters starting to struggle The latest trade data provide further evidence that Emerging Market exporters are starting to struggle. But while exports from Emerging Asia have continued to grow (albeit at a slower rate), exports... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: where do the risks lie? Total debt in emerging markets (EMs) is relatively low by international standards. But the history of EMs suggests that crises often occur when credit grows rapidly for several years rather than... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
