Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really happening to China’s copper demand? Traditional methods of calculating copper demand have been suggesting that Chinese consumption is actually falling. However, these estimates of “apparent consumption” are distorted by changes in... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Digger sales may give early hint of rebound The high profile data releases of the last week have provided little evidence that growth in China is picking up, even though credit has now been expanding at a rapid pace for several months. But... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in May, but it is likely to pick up over the rest of the year as pork prices look to have bottomed out. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) China’s two manufacturing PMIs moved in opposite directions in May, with the official index above 50 and rising and the HSBC/Markit index dropping below 50. The second of these is more representative... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs continue to lose steam Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Q1 may have slumped to a three-and-a-half year low, having been hit by a dip in global trade and structural problems in the BRIC economies. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Demographics will not determine future of EMs Healthy demographics can certainly play a role in supporting growth in emerging markets. However, the future performance of places such as India, the Middle East and Africa, where demographics are... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of new momentum in economic policy reform Six months after China's leadership transition there are encouraging signs that policymakers are embracing the need for significant economic policy reform. In this China Watch we review the progress... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
