China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China embraces reform – and slower growth China’s policymakers finally seem willing to tackle the economy’s structural imbalances. This reduces the threat of an abrupt slowdown in GDP growth further down the line, but it also means that China... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 13) Today’s PMIs suggest that firms weathered the cash crunch well and, with interbank rates now dropping back, it may appear that the crisis has passed. But a slowdown in credit growth and greater... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Financial stocks lead slump Equity prices in Shanghai have fallen sharply since early June. The primary cause is the cash crunch in China’s interbank market rather than increasing concerns about Fed’s policy. Meanwhile, the... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil unlikely to cause EMs to slow via wealth effects While at first sight it does look like the recent falls in emerging market (EM) equities could cause growth to slow via “wealth effects”, we think there are only limited grounds for concern. 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows to weakest pace since global financial crisis Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM slowdown has continued into the start of Q2. Although all three main regions have reported disappointing growth, there are signs that the downturn in Emerging... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further weakness in China, but some respite for euro-zone The so-called “flash” PMIs for the US, euro-zone and China – economies which together account for nearly half of world GDP – give us an early indication of how the global economy is performing in June... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering on EMs Yesterday’s FOMC meeting cemented expectations that the Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year and has weighed on EM financial markets today, but the economic impact of... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q2 GDP growth to fall further The May reading of the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has continued to slow in y/y terms. With no rebound yet apparent, we are revising down our forecasts for GDP... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun. 13) Today’s worse-than-expected reading on China’s flash PMI gives a further reason to expect GDP growth to slow this quarter. Policymakers care more about the state of the labour market than the headline... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
