Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul 13.) China’s flash PMI for July was, again, worse than most had expected. There was little in the breakdown to suggest that conditions might soon turn around. That said, other, broader measures of activity... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Better news late in Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic activity regained some momentum in June. This may disappoint those hoping for a stimulus response to the slowdown, while also... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyond We are deeply sceptical of the argument that the renminbi now needs to weaken to reach its market value. On the contrary, we continue to expect it to edge higher this year and make further gains in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Asia’s diverging growth prospects China’s Q2 GDP data underline the extent to which Asia’s economic landscape has shifted. We expect growth in China to continue to slow over the next couple of years. For India, the worst of the... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the government’s bottom line for growth? Confusion over where the government’s “bottom line” for GDP growth lies suggests that officials may be less fixated on meeting the annual growth target than many outside observers think. Their main... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Jun.) Round one in the fight between policymakers and lenders has gone to the former. Outstanding credit growth has slowed. But the key, as yet unanswered, question is whether the slowdown will continue now... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export slump points to faltering demand China’s exporters in June had their worst single month since the depths of the financial crisis. Efforts to crack down on illicit cross-border capital flows may have played a large part, but the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 13) June’s pick-up in consumer price inflation was the result of increases in vegetable and pork price inflation. Core inflation fell. Looking ahead, although vegetable price inflation may now stabilise... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
