China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong GDP figures for the second quarter show the economy remains subdued. Over the next couple of years, with the global economy set to stage a gradual recovery, Hong Kong should see a modest... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPLs continue to pick up There has been an increase in the value of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system since Q3 2011, as the economy has slowed. At face value, this problem does not yet appear too serious... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Easing of one-child policy unlikely to alter growth outlook There is growing speculation that China’s one-child policy could be eased later this year. However, the economic impact of any change in the policy is likely to be relatively small. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese recovery built on weak foundations Today’s data releases provide further evidence that China’s economy is improving. However, the rebound has been driven by investment spending and fuelled by rapid credit growth earlier this year. A... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade steadies after first half slowdown There are some signs in the latest EM trade data that the slowdown in exports witnessed over the first half of this year has eased. Even so, export growth remains broadly flat in year-on-year terms in... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade data add to evidence of renewed pick-up in investment The rebound in both China’s exports and imports in July was bigger than most had expected. On the export side, there are signs that foreign demand is recovering.Meanwhile, the import data provide... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul 13.) Continued increases in pork and vegetable prices look likely to have driven consumer price inflation higher in July. Further rises probably lie ahead. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How close is China to a crisis? China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul 13.) July’s rise in the official manufacturing PMI was unexpected, and it stands in contrast to the fall in the HSBC/Markit index which was also confirmed today. But the increase did not come completely... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate liberalisation hurts financial stocks While the Hang Seng index has rebounded significantly in July, equity prices in Shanghai have changed little, although the cash crunch has passed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been kept stable. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A welcome light on China’s government debt China’s forthcoming audit of government debt will shine a welcome light on a murky part of the economy. Based on what we know at present, the overall government debt situation has actually improved in... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
